Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.021481 0.024403 0.027589 0.031321 0.035577 0.040280 0.045879
2025-03-02 0.016505 0.020404 0.025034 0.030948 0.038313 0.047203 0.058777
2025-03-09 0.014178 0.018561 0.024078 0.031551 0.041440 0.054123 0.071692
2025-03-16 0.012213 0.016748 0.022733 0.031239 0.043068 0.059009 0.082251
2025-03-23 0.011147 0.015918 0.022478 0.032201 0.046322 0.066203 0.096528
2025-03-30 0.009711 0.014367 0.021004 0.031210 0.046611 0.069144 0.104916
2025-04-06 0.008691 0.013278 0.020037 0.030787 0.047588 0.073056 0.115002
2025-04-13 0.007653 0.012040 0.018702 0.029629 0.047263 0.074876 0.121919
2025-04-20 0.007254 0.011740 0.018752 0.030601 0.050326 0.082200 0.138321
2025-04-27 0.006858 0.011397 0.018688 0.031359 0.053077 0.089233 0.154904
2025-05-04 0.006541 0.011149 0.018743 0.032299 0.056192 0.097115 0.173694
2025-05-11 0.006039 0.010537 0.018130 0.032023 0.057158 0.101363 0.186421
2025-05-18 0.005640 0.010076 0.017749 0.032147 0.058894 0.107221 0.202894
2025-05-25 0.005192 0.009488 0.017095 0.031720 0.059588 0.111268 0.216430
2025-06-01 0.004944 0.009239 0.017020 0.032341 0.062280 0.119247 0.238365
2025-06-08 0.004591 0.008760 0.016479 0.032021 0.063120 0.123746 0.253814
2025-06-15 0.004437 0.008647 0.016609 0.033008 0.066610 0.133733 0.281518
2025-06-22 0.004056 0.008057 0.015772 0.031991 0.065952 0.135317 0.291694
2025-06-29 0.003778 0.007645 0.015249 0.031558 0.066443 0.139275 0.307349
2025-07-06 0.003445 0.007094 0.014399 0.030370 0.065224 0.139512 0.314774
2025-07-13 0.003360 0.007049 0.014577 0.031366 0.068797 0.150350 0.347321
2025-07-20 0.003258 0.006958 0.014651 0.032143 0.071956 0.160563 0.379512
2025-07-27 0.003178 0.006908 0.014804 0.033108 0.075620 0.172246 0.416454